It feels strange to be writing about the impact of Coronavirus on the world economy when its full anticipated impact on the health of the country from which I write, the UK, has yet to be felt. But it has already had a significant impact on business around the world, and not least the travel business. How it will pan out remains to be seen. But it is worth considering the impact it might have beyond health concerns and whether our world will return to ‘normal’, or whether some changes might be long-lasting and structural.

The Yellow Railroad New Year 'Big Blog'

 "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." 

(Niels Bohr, Nobel Prize winning physicist)

The luxury of prediction is irresponsibility. The Damaclean sword of accountability hangs far in the future; and reading the runes has always been viewed as guesswork rather than science. While future forecasting is, to a degree, based on observing past behaviour and technological developments, it would be a dull take on trends that merely extrapolated a straight line from past activity to future behaviour.

What Role Can Evidence Play in Predicting the Future?

............Tom Buncle picks up the cudgels to defend the role of current evidence in future forecasting